New Quality Productivity | Huang Qifan’s latest speech: Let New Quality Productivity become a new growth pole for future industrial development
2024-01-10 18:51 Published in Guangdong
On January 7, 2024, the 25th Peking University Guanghua New Year Forum was held in the Peking University Centennial Lecture Hall. The theme of this forum is "China's Exploration of Growth Momentum". Researcher and former mayor of Chongqing Huang Qifan attended the forum and delivered a speech titled "Promoting the development of new quality productivity around new manufacturing, new services, and new business formats."
Huang Qifan said that the new productivity he understands is roughly composed of three "new"s: new manufacturing, new services, and new business formats. The aggregation of new manufacturing represented by strategic emerging industries and future industries, new services represented by high value-added producer services, and new business formats represented by globalization and digitalization is the new quality productivity. my country has huge potential in the three major sectors of manufacturing, services and new business sectors. It is necessary to cultivate new productive forces to promote China's manufacturing industry to overcome shortcomings and make new productive forces become a new growth pole for China's future development.
The following is a transcript of part of the speech:
I am very pleased to be invited to participate in this year's New Year Forum. The theme of this year's speech is "Promoting the development of new quality productivity around new manufacturing, new services, and new business formats." I would like to talk about my understanding of new productivity.
I believe that new productivity has roughly three “new” components:
The first new thing is "new manufacturing".
I personally understand that "new manufacturing" involves five fields: new energy, new materials, new medicine, new manufacturing equipment and new information technology, but it must be called the concept of "new quality productivity", not those ordinary technologies. Progress is not about marginal improvement, but about disruptive technological innovation. The so-called disruptive technological innovation, I believe, must meet at least one of the following five new standards:
One is new scientific discoveries. This is a major discovery from "0 to 1", from scratch, to a new understanding of our world. For example, research in quantum science and brain science may advance humankind's understanding of the world and itself a big step forward.
The second is new manufacturing technology. That is to say, manufacturing technology that is completely different from the existing technical routes in terms of principles, paths, etc., but can replace the original processes and technical solutions, such as future biomanufacturing, which uses bioreactors to manufacture various products that humans need. Protein, food, materials, energy, etc.
The third is new production tools. Tool changes have always played an important role in the history of human development, because tool innovation has brought about efficiency improvements and cost reductions. There are many such examples. For example, the emergence of EUV lithography machines has made 7-nanometer and 5-nanometer chip manufacturing possible, and new energy Integrated die-casting technology in automobile manufacturing has significantly reduced the manufacturing cost of new cars and so on.
The fourth is new production factors. In the past, manufacturing relied on factors such as labor, capital, and energy. In addition to these traditional factors, future manufacturing will also include the new factor of data. The intervention of new factors has brought about new changes in the production function. Economies of scale, economies of scope, and learning effects will produce new cross-combinations and fusion fission.
The fifth is new products and uses. Every era has its "four big items" and "five big items" that have entered thousands of households in that era. In recent decades, they have been home appliances, mobile phones, cars, etc. In the future, they may be home robots, head-mounted VR/AR devices, Flexible displays, 3D printing equipment, smart cars, etc.
Back to the present, when we develop new manufacturing, we need to focus on developing strategic emerging industries and cultivating future industries. The "14th Five-Year Plan" proposes to focus on the new generation of information technology, biotechnology, new energy, new materials, high-end equipment, and new energy. In strategic emerging industries such as automobiles, green environmental protection, aerospace, and marine equipment, we will accelerate the innovative application of key core technologies, enhance the ability to guarantee factors, and cultivate new momentum for industrial development. Organize and implement future industry incubation and acceleration plans in the fields of cutting-edge technologies and industrial transformations such as brain-like intelligence, quantum information, genetic technology, future networks, deep sea and aerospace development, hydrogen energy and energy storage, and plan the layout of a number of future industries.
Today, we see that the world is making rapid progress in these fields. Humanity is advancing science and technology at an unprecedented speed. A batch of disruptive products and technologies will change people's production and lifestyle and push the production possibility curve to a new level. Expansion and transition. This is the first point I talked about, which is "new manufacturing".
The second new thing is "new services".
The fact that services have become an important component of productivity is the result of the deepening of social division of labor. New productivity requires new services. The focus of this service lies in the producer service industry that is embedded in the global industrial chain and supply chain and has a significant controlling influence on the global industrial chain.
Regarding the service industry, there are currently three characteristics in the world economic map:
The first feature is that in various high-end equipment, the value of the service industry often accounts for 50% to 60% of the added value of the equipment or terminal. For example, a mobile phone has more than a thousand parts. The added value formed by these hardware accounts for about 45% of the product value. The remaining 55% is the operating system, various application software, design patents of various chips, etc., which are various kind of service. These services are invisible and intangible, but they represent 55% of the value of this mobile phone. Others, such as nuclear magnetic resonance, or various high-end equipment and terminals, all have similar characteristics.
The second feature is that the entire world's service trade accounts for an increasing proportion of global trade. Thirty years ago, service trade accounted for about 5% of total global trade, and now it has reached 30%. Compared with trade in goods, the proportion of trade in goods is shrinking, while trade in services is expanding.
The third feature is that in countries around the world, especially developed countries, the proportion of producer services in their total GDP is increasing. We often say that the U.S. service industry accounts for 80% of the U.S. GDP, which seems to be a little out of touch with reality. Is there a bubble? It should be noted that 70% of the 80% service industry in the United States is producer services. This 70% × 80% is 56%. That is, almost 13 trillion US dollars of the US$25 trillion GDP in the United States are producer services. Industry is a high-tech service industry that is closely related to manufacturing. The added value of the service industry in the 27 EU countries accounts for 78% of GDP, and 50% of this 78% is producer services. That is, 39% of EU GDP is producer services. Producer services account for more than 50% of GDP in the United States, about 40% in the European Union, and the added value of producer services in other developed countries and G20 countries accounts for roughly between 40% and 50% of GDP.
In contrast, these three service indicators are precisely the shortcomings of our country's current productivity. The added value of the manufacturing industry will account for 27% of our GDP in 2022, and the added value of the service industry will be 52.8%, but 2/3 of this 52.8% It is the daily service industry, and the producer service industry is less than 1/3, which means that our producer service industry accounts for about 17%-18% of GDP, compared with Europe (40%) and the United States (50%) The gap is relatively large.
In other words, to realize Chinese-style modernization, we must accelerate the development of producer services. To achieve high-quality Made in China, we must increase the added value of high value-added producer services that are closely related to manufacturing.
According to the "Statistical Classification of Producer Services Industry (2019)" of the National Bureau of Statistics, producer services include R&D, design and other technical services provided for production activities, cargo transportation, general aviation production, warehousing and postal express services, information services, Financial services, energy conservation and environmental protection services, productive leasing services, business services, human resource management and vocational education and training services, wholesale and trade economic agency services, and productive support services, a total of ten categories. These ten sectors are strongly related to the manufacturing industry. The various added values of the manufacturing industry and the added value of services are represented by them. If they are not in place, the manufactured products will not be high-end. Although the added value of my country's manufacturing industry currently accounts for nearly 30% of the world's total, the producer services industry, which is strongly related to manufacturing, lags behind relatively. This is the root cause of my country's low position in the global industrial chain and supply chain.
In addition, China's service trade also has the problem of structural proportions that are out of sync with the world. According to data from the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development, global service trade accounted for approximately 30% of the total global trade in 2019. China's service trade accounted for 30% of the total trade last year. Just 12%. my country's service trade exports were 2.85 trillion yuan last year, more than half of which were exports of daily services. We have more than 3 trillion yuan of service trade imports, which are basically producer services. Unfortunately, most of the imported producer services are not producer services imported by Chinese trading companies, but foreign service trade. The company's producer services are exported to China.
In this sense, cultivating new productive forces actually means that 50% of China's service industry should be producer services, and the producer services industry should strive to reach 30% of the entire GDP sector. If our service industry accounts for 60% of GDP, and 50% of the 60% is producer services, the producer services industry in the entire GDP sector can account for 30% of GDP. Although it still cannot reach the proportion of Europe (40%) and the United States (50%), it has increased from less than 20% to 30%. This increase of 10 percentage points is equivalent to the current GDP of more than 120 trillion. 12 trillion. If service trade also increases, from the current 12% to 30% of total trade, the value of services in our high-end manufacturing can reach about 50% of the total added value of terminal manufacturing products. This is a new quality productivity manufacturing industry. direction. The producer service industry has gone up, and the manufacturing of new productive forces has also gone up. This is the second "new" I want to talk about.
The third new thing is new business formats.
The core of cultivating new business formats is to promote industrial change, which is a profound adjustment of industrial organizations. I think there are two key thrusts:
The first key thrust is globalization. The formation of new business formats must be connected with global trends to form a new pattern of mutual promotion of domestic and international dual cycles. We must unswervingly promote institutional openness and promote the formation of a new development pattern. This is a new business format and a world trend. We must cultivate new business formats and new models, which require the integration of domestic and foreign trade. In other words, our market system must be reformed from the aspects of rules, regulations, standards, management, etc., to form an integrated internal and external circulation. , market-oriented, legal and international business environment.
To this end, on December 1 last year, the State Council executive meeting studied and approved "Several Measures on Accelerating the Integrated Development of Domestic and Foreign Trade", proposing to benchmark the international advanced level and accelerate the adjustment and improvement of relevant domestic rules, regulations, management, standards, etc. , promote the connection of domestic and foreign trade standards, inspection and certification, and supervision, and promote the same line, same standards and same principles for domestic and foreign trade products. These measures taken by the State Council are the inherent goals of this reform.
The second key thrust is digitization and the formation of the industrial Internet. Now our consumer Internet is booming, but the industrial Internet has basically just begun. The Industrial Internet is not only the Internet of domestic industries, but also includes the international and domestic Industrial Internet. There are two types of industrial Internet. One is an enterprise group or a large manufacturing enterprise. From design, market, information, sales information to development, manufacturing, The integrated digital system of logistics is talking about the industrial Internet of each enterprise. Just like the SaaS we talked about in the 1990s and the ERP we talked about after 2000, it is the industrial automation of an enterprise's manufacturing industry, from marketing to sales, Design the entire automated industrial Internet system.
However, what the market is developing is another type of industrial Internet, which relies on Internet platforms and various terminals to reach consumers around the world, and realizes small batch customization, mass production, and integration of the entire industry chain according to consumer preferences. Global distribution has gathered on such a platform hundreds of R&D and design, finance and insurance, logistics and transportation companies that provide producer services, thousands of manufacturing companies, and tens of thousands of various raw material suppliers. Enterprises are fully connected with digital systems. Relying on such an industrial Internet platform, these enterprises have formed an industrial cluster with close collaboration across the entire industry chain with customers as the center, truly realizing the goal of determining production based on sales, replacing old products with new products, and using new products to replace old ones. Fast and slow. There are a number of such industrial Internets in China now. Whichever city such a platform is placed in will bring hundreds of billions or trillions of sales value, and at the same time bring hundreds of billions or trillions of sales. Financial settlement will also bring logistics and other various services, turning it into a financial center, trade center and service center. Therefore, the “Three Centers” will be the platform that controls the future of the global industrial Internet.
In short, the aggregation formed by new manufacturing represented by strategic emerging industries and future industries, new services represented by high value-added producer services, and new business forms represented by globalization and digitalization is the new quality productivity. , our country has huge potential in the manufacturing sector, service sector, and new business sectors. The current shortcomings will be the huge growth poles in the future. We hope to promote China's manufacturing industry to overcome the shortcomings and become a future development by cultivating new productive forces. new growth pole.
Sihui City is relatively backward in China.
I hope that merchants from all over the world will visit Sihui City and take a look.
I hope that business leaders from all over the world will visit Sihui City in China to inspect the investment environment.
Give us some advice.
Sihui City is willing to do business with the world. Our goals are the same.
Sihui City Investment Promotion Center
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